Archive for the ‘Capital markets’ category

Currency Trading and The Forex Capital Markets

August 15th, 2011

Currency trading and the access to the forex capital markets, because of capital requirements and the technology involved, was in the past open only to hedge funds managers, large commodity trading advisors, institutional investors, and banks. It is opinion of who writes that forex markets are not random and the efficient market hypotheses and theories sustained by so many economists are flawed (Warren Buffet, regarding the Efficient Market Hypothesis, once said “I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient”); for this very reason it is possible to exploit the inefficiencies of the forex capital markets and devise profitable currency trading strategies.

In recent years the development of the web has made possible for many brokerage firms to offer currency trading to small retail traders: the phenomenon has started in the mid-90s with stock market day traders and has rapidly evolved and spread to currency trading. The forex capital markets are highly volatile: it is estimated that more than 80% of currency trading volume is speculative in nature and, as a result, the forex market has frequent corrections, is very unpredictable but can also be very profitable.

However, for long term forecast trends in currency trading, fundamental analysis, analyzing and focusing on the economic, social and political forces that drive supply and demand, can be an invaluable instrument; indeed, the fundamental analysis focuses on (sometimes very complicated) theoretical models of currency exchange rate that are determined and based upon major economic factors and their probability to affect currency trading and the forex capital markets. Fundamental analysis in currency trading is for this reason important and this is even truer as currencies markets, more than other markets tend to develop strong trends.

Nevertheless, most forex traders do not trade positions over long periods, but tend to trade the forex capital market opening and closing positions one (or more) times per day — thus leading, in some cases, to overtrading. This should be no surprise: currency trading and the forex capital markets are well suited to price-based techniques, that is, technical and quantitative analysis. Technical analysis is the prediction of forex capital market movements from the data and information obtained from the past, and it uses different types of charts. However, an approach purely based on technical/quantitative analysis could be too restrictive and not lead to maximum profits: eventually, the most successful currency trading methods are the ones supported by both technical/quantitative and fundamental analysis. In fact, although testing and research in the forex capital markets requires a rigorous approach, there is an element that is a little bit of art: do not believe everything you see but ask yourself why a particular system works and try to verify if the roots of it can be traced back in the behavior of the masses. The speed at which currency rates adjust to news is very high, even shorter than 15 o 30 minutes, and this is linked to the reaction (sometimes panicked and irrational) of people to particular news linked to exchange rates, or interest rates, or any other element affecting directly or indirectly the forex marked and currency trading.

In conclusion, forex capital markets, being still a relatively young and mostly underdeveloped compared to other segments of the financial markets, and given their intrinsic volatility, represents a remarkable opportunity to the educated currency trader. Elements that will help you to succeed are incessant practice, thorough knowledge of the history, science and art of currency trading, ability to deal with trade failures and the perseverance to be a forex trader with discipline: the only people who will not win at currency trading will be the ones who quit.

By Gui Tru

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World Capital Market

August 15th, 2011

Throughout the early modern period, as communications increased in speed and effectiveness, there were attempts to make larger capital markets, with the end goal being the creation of a global capital market where money can be raised internationally, allowing for greater access by all companies to the same pool of capital regardless of where the company is located, and also free of legislative and other restrictions that apply in some parts of the world. Historically, the raising of capital involved transactions conducted between governments and private individuals. These processes were fraught with problems for both sides, and by the late 17th century, in western Europe, there was an attempt to formalize the process.

This saw the creation of the Bank of England in 1691 (incorporated in 1694), and in the early 18th century the origins of other schemes in other countries, some for city corporations, others for governments. However with the Industrial Revolution many capitalists wanted to be able to raise capital to embark on their projects and there was no regular system of raising capital and sharing the risk. As a result with the building of the Bridgewater (or Worsley) Canal, Francis Egerton, the 2nd Duke of Bridgewater, had to take the entire risk for the venture himself, and although he did end up very wealthy, it was a move that nearly sent him bankrupt. Similarly some major capitalist ventures could come to create major crises in the countries where the vast majority of the investors lived. Two of the most extreme examples of these came from France-the attempt by the Mexican government of Benito Juarez to abrogate the debts incurred by previous Mexican governments leading to the French military intervention in the country to install Emperor Maximilian in the 1860s; and another being the Panama Canal Crisis in the 1880s when French investors lost fortunes in speculation in the shares of a company which hoped to build the Panama Canal. » Read more: World Capital Market

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Understanding Forex Capital Markets

August 15th, 2011

The Forex Capital Market in the foreign exchange arena worldwide is a nonstop, no nonsense cash market. The different currencies of nations are traded here for profit and the transactions are typically taken care of by dedicated brokers. Foreign currencies in the Forex Capital Market worldwide are consistently bought and sold. This buying and selling of currencies takes place across local and global markets.

The overall exercise is to ensure that the investments of the traders involved increase in value. These profits are in turn generated by the currency movements. The conditions in the Forex capital market arena are subject to change at any time and are substantially influenced by a number of real time economic news and events. The main attraction of this market for retail traders includes 24×7 trading and nonstop access to the global Forex dealers. You can literally trade at any time of the day!

The currency markets worldwide are enormously liquid and this nature of the market makes it easy to trade the major currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen and British Pound). This highly volatile and liquid market offers investors a number of profit raking opportunities. A trader’s ability to quickly profit with the rising or falling of prices is what lures the industry big players to keep earning and investing regularly.

The market offers foreign exchange trading within a leveraged arena, with low margin requirements. The market also offers investors and traders ample of options to benefit from with zero commission trading.
» Read more: Understanding Forex Capital Markets

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Iitaly Volatility Differences In Accounting

August 9th, 2011

At the European level about 60% of Greek bonds held in HTM book with a higher proportion for the domestic banks (Greece) compared to non-banks in the country (86% vs. 31%). If we assume that other international banks (that are not covered by a stress test) had a similar ratio of ownership in HTM book, it would mean that international banks might not be too refused Greece’s debt restructuring if NPV NPV neutral or limit losses.

Comparing the Italian and Spanish ownership, we find that a much higher proportion of bonds held by banks in Italy held the book trade [AFS]. This could explain the poor performance of the Italian bond spreads widened in recent moves such as the volatile domestic banks will [not] been able to increase their purchases. Conversely, a larger share of bonds held in the banking book Spanish banks have the ability to withstand stress on the sign-tomarket while widening spreads stable and can therefore offer greater support for their state bonds.

Some background might help here. Bonds held to maturity the bank ‘(HTM) books are not marked to market. Debt held as available for sale (AFS) usually. The more debt peripheral banks classify as HTM softer tend to come from the volatile market movements, in general.

So, if banks hold large parts of Italy Italy AFS debt in their portfolios, they will be exposed to past (violent) moves the market price as a rule. Except that the Bank of Italy provided some capital for Italian banks hold bonds in European Union AFS their books, in the spring of last year.

It is true that the Bank of Italy has allowed banks to not recognize the signs of market movements in the AFS book for regulatory capital purposes. However, there are two things worth mentioning a) the suspension is a temporary measure and if you are a bank prudential then you should ideally keep the provision for losses in AFS book and b) the impact of capital regulation is influenced by the book value of AFS securities

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