If the bank has a loan on the books valued at par, and offer major reductions, should write down the value of the loan. It takes a hit on the capital position, and experience an event of nonperformance by which even the most sympathetic regulators will have no option but tabulation. If the bank has purchased the loan at a discount, however, loans in the books at historical cost. Banks can offer a reduction in principal to the discount rate without experiencing any loss of equity book.
Of course this is a mere accounting problem. Whether or not the banks take a hit of capital has no bearing on whether the main decline will increase the realizable value of cash flow loans.
But accounting is destiny. The economic value of a bank’s franchise, both shareholders and managers, tightly wound with a accounting position. A bank whose books are healthy can distribute cash to shareholders and managers, while a bank whose capital position has deteriorated will find itself constrained. A well-capitalized banks are free to take a lucrative, new speculative business, while the troubled bank should remain dull and unprofitable vanilla.
This is, basically, chaos-through approach to troubled assets. If you keep them on your books at par, then you can claim to be well capitalized, and using all the capital to pay themselves well and expanding into new businesses. Eventually, with luck, the business will be successful enough that they make enough money to cover losses on the assets when they finally realized.
BofA is juggling a mortgage problem as the economy and housing again looked shaky. The market has already shown what they think: BofA shares trade about 50% of book value and about 85% of the stated tangible book value. This means that investors think its assets are either exaggerated or understated liabilities.
In other words, there are two different ways of looking at the bank’s equity. One is the way Waldman, where you take the assets of state banks, reduce liability, and the remaining equity. And then there is a more common and important of doing things, only to see the stock price. It is true that the regulators do not worry about the equity accounting, they pay attention to the stock price as well. (That is one reason that they are not worried about the banks during the subprime bubble: the stock shows very little risk there.) And when it comes to paying employees and open up new business lines, healthy stock prices in a far more useful than accounting fiction.
Investors know how many subprime junk buried in the balance of the largest banks in America, and they take that into account when they value the stock of banks’. If the banks, through a reduction in principal, can increase the real value of that rubbish, Wall Street will likely be their reward rather than punish them. Even if it means taking a write-down on assets that everyone knows is worth significantly less than 100 cents on the dollar.
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